When Will Mcgyver Bo on Again

As the battle of wills and might betwixt Russia and the west over the fate of Ukraine unfolds, there is i fundamental fact to comport in mind: Vladimir Putin has never lost a war. During by conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syrian arab republic and Crimea over his two decades in power, Putin succeeded by giving his armed forces articulate, doable military objectives that would allow him to declare victory, credibly, in the eyes of the Russian people and a wary, watching world. His latest initiative in Ukraine is unlikely to be any unlike.

Despite months of military machine build-upwards forth Ukraine'southward borders and repeated warnings from the Biden administration that an incursion could happen at any time, the February 24 pre-dawn bombing campaign that kicked off Europe's first state war in decades seemed to come as a surprise to many Ukrainians. In major cities across a country the size of the state of Texas, stunned citizens, lulled into complacency by their president's repeated reassurances that Russia would not invade, watched and listened to the sound of thunderous explosions targeting Ukrainian military bases, airports and command and command centers. Within 24 hours, the disharmonize spread quickly, with Russian tanks and troops moving swiftly toward Kyiv, the upper-case letter; fierce battles in Kharkiv, the second largest city; and fighting effectually Chernobyl, the site of the disastrous 1986 nuclear reactor meltdown. Shock and awe, Russian style.

FE Putin's Endgame 01 — Despite repeated warnings that an invasion was imminent, many Ukrainians were shocked by the arrival of Russian troops. Hither, members of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces participate in a drill days earlier the bombings began. Ethan Swope/Bloomberg/Getty

In an instant, Russian President Putin'due south invasion of Ukraine destroyed the mail Cold War security society in Europe—one centered, to Russian federation's fury, by an ofttimes-expanding NATO alliance. Analysts expect that, in one case Kyiv falls, the armed services aggression will give manner to a political settlement that puts a Russia-friendly government in identify. By February 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering an invitation from Moscow to hold "neutrality" talks in neighboring Belarus. If those talks happen, Putin volition and then exist able to pull back troops and end the conflict—while having dealt the Westward a humiliating blow.

And that, armed services and Russia experts agree, may exist the real betoken.

Ukraine, of course, is non a NATO member; the possibility that it might join the Alliance some day, as other countries that were once part of the sometime Soviet bloc take done, is a key issue in the current conflict. Putin'south actions, a brazen defiance in the confront of repeated warnings and threats of sanctions from U.Southward. President Joe Biden and western allies, now brand information technology a certainty, if information technology wasn't before, that membership volition never happen. Putin's aggression will also serve as a stark warning to countries formerly function of the Soviet Spousal relationship of the possible repercussions of getting too cozy with the Due west.

The mail service Soviet status quo in Eastern Europe was one "that [Putin] never accustomed," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal. "It ate at him. He believes Russia was treated [by the Westward] as a second class citizen after the Soviet Union fell."

Now, western diplomats and intelligence officials believe, Putin seeks to decapitate the western-leaning leadership in Kyiv headed past Zelensky and replace it with a government that will be loyal to "the new Tsar," as former Estonian President Toomas Ilves calls Putin. That could happen, U.Due south. intelligence officials tell Newsweek, within days. Putin does non want, nor does he need, to occupy the unabridged land to accomplish his greater goals, intelligence analysts and officials say. Every bit Ilves puts it, "He wants a puppet state like Belarus," another former Soviet province just north of Ukraine, and from which troops poured into Ukraine as the Russian bombing ramped up. With a new reality on the footing in Eastern Europe, Ilves continues, "Putin then wants to rewrite the security rules of the route between him and NATO."

Ukraine itself appears to share at least role of that view. A statement from Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's presidential chief of staff, and shared with Newsweek past Ukraine's embassy in Washington, outlined what Kyiv suspected were Moscow's goals. "The Office of the President of Ukraine believes the Russian federation has ii tactical goals—to seize territories and attack the legitimate political leadership of Ukraine in society to spread chaos and [to] install a marionette authorities that would sign a peace deal on bilateral relations with Russian federation," Podolyak said.

FE Putin's Endgame 07 — A man clears debris at a damaged residential building at Koshytsa Street, a suburb of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, where a military shell allegedly hit, on February 25, 2022. Daniel Leal/AFP/Getty

A U.s. that idea it was pivoting to Asia, and focusing on Red china—a land that is its preeminent rival going forwards—has now been dragged back to Eastern Europe, where for centuries and so much blood has been spilled. Putin now has the world's total, undivided attending, in the same manner that every Secretary Full general in the Soviet era did. In spooky televised remarks later on the invasion had begun, Putin said, "whoever tries to interfere [in Ukraine] should know that Russian federation's response will be firsthand, and volition lead to such consequences that you have never experienced in your history." Putin's subsequent announcement that he was putting Russia'south nuclear forces on alerts, underscored the threat.

Russia is at present back in the limelight, a nation that is demonstrating, with a brandish of military machine might, that it remains a Great Power. Which is precisely where Putin wants his nation to exist. He believes Russian federation should at all times command respect from the residual of the globe, "and when it doesn't control respect, it should control fearfulness," every bit Lukyanov of Russia in Global Affairs puts it.

Mission accomplished. As Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO and a long time Russia watcher characterized it recently on the CBS podcast Intelligence Matters, "This is [Putin's] 'look at me' moment."

The West Responds

Inside hours of the invasion, the U.s. and its allies responded by sharply ratcheting up economic sanctions but it's unclear whether the moves will deter the Russian leader. In a speech announcing the response, Biden said more than than half of the West'south high tech exports to Russia would be slashed, "degrading their industrial capacity," and pain industries like aerospace and shipbuilding. He's besides freezing the U.S. assets of four additional Russian banks, including VTB, the country's second largest financial institution, whose CEO is very close to Putin. "This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economic system, both immediately and over time," Biden said.

The following day, the White House appear it would join the European Union in implementing sanctions against Putin personally. The Russian President is widely thought to be one of the world's richest men, allegedly hiding much of his wealth in shell companies in various taxation havens throughout the earth.

How effective the sanctions will exist is unclear. Putin, for his role, believes he has finer made his country sanctions-proof. Russia has over $630 billion in hard currency reserves, and rakes in $14 billion per calendar month in oil and gas exports. Equally Russia's ambassador to Sweden, Viktor Tatarintsev, told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet days earlier the invasion began, when the West ramped up threats of financial penalties in a futile effort to preclude war machine activeness, "Excuse my linguistic communication, but we don't give a shit about your sanctions."

Biden, in his remarks the day the invasion began, said he believes Putin may have brought himself a world of trouble by invading Ukraine. "History has shown time and again how swift gains in territory requite way to grinding occupation, acts of mass civil disobedience and strategic expressionless ends," he said. And in fact, thousands of Ukrainian civilians accept been training as part of newly formed "territorial defense organizations" prepare in order to resist the Russians.

FE Putin's Endgame 06 — President Joe Biden takes questions after giving an update on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, Feb. 24 in Washington, D.C. Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times/Getty

But U.S. intelligence officials privately do non share Biden's optimism well-nigh "mass disobedience." One official who spoke to Newsweek on background considering he is not authorized to speak on the tape said, "Later on the authorities in Kyiv is dismantled, there will be no opposition inside Ukraine for usa to support militarily."

His pessimism is rooted in Putin'southward by beliefs, most notably when he presided over a scorched globe campaign to brutally put down an insurgency in Chechnya more than 20 years ago. He says, "It'southward not realistic to mountain an opposition entrada. [Putin] does not value human life the same style that the gratuitous earth does, hence [Russian troops] will eradicate any opposition en masse."

Indeed, Putin's history as a commander in chief of Russia's military shows that there may be reason to dubiousness Biden's optimism that Ukraine will turn into a quagmire for Moscow. Beyond the ruthless entrada to put down Muslim rebels in Chechnya, he hived off the two sections of the onetime Soviet state of Georgia that he wanted to control in 2008. And so in 2022 he took dorsum Crimea in Ukraine, and set up separatist movements in two heavily Russian provinces in the east, Donetsk and Luhansk. (Two days before the February 24th invasion, Putin declared those two provinces were now "contained republics." )

FE Putin's Endgame 08 — Ukrainian servicemen ride on tanks towards the forepart line with Russian forces in the Lugansk region of Ukraine on February 25, 2022. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty

And on the complex battlefield in Syria, where the U.S. and Russians risked conflict, erstwhile President Barack Obama funded opposition rebel groups, including some tied to Al Qaeda, and then failed to enforce his own red line after President Basar Al Assad used poison gas on his enemies. Putin sent Russian troops in with ane goal: that Assad maintain his grip on ability. He remains in part to this mean solar day.

The Ultimate Goal

What is Putin'south endgame now? The Russian leader is fueled past rage and seeks revenge against the West for his homeland's perceived mistreatment, says Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Constitute, a conservative think tank based in Washington. The country Putin grew up in, and the 1 he served as a KGB officer, dissolved in 1991. In its stead came anarchy at abode, and, in Putin'southward view, expose from abroad.

The demise of the Soviet Union, he has famously said, "was the almost catastrophic geopolitical event of the 20th century" (worse, even, than World State of war II, in which xx million Soviet citizens were killed). His resentment over what happened to his country, particularly in the firsthand aftermath of the Soviet collapse, is more than widely shared by Russians than many in the West appreciate.

As the Moscow bureau primary for this magazine in the early 2000s, I saw organized offense take over businesses big and pocket-sized; the land's finances were in shambles. The government was unable to pay the salaries of a in one case proud military. I interviewed an Army colonel stationed on the Kamchatka Peninsula, in Russian federation's far due east, who wept as he confessed he wasn't able to buy his wife a altogether nowadays a few weeks earlier because he had non been paid his wages in months.

Boris Yeltsin, one time the autonomous hero who helped bring down the Soviet Union, had turned into a drunken mess equally the starting time freely elected president of Russia; his inner circle was corrupt, enriching themselves as ordinary citizens struggled amidst the post Soviet chaos. On New year's day'southward Day, at the dawn of the new millennium, Yeltsin stepped downwards. He was replaced by the man he had named Prime number Minister months before, Vladimir Putin.

Twenty-two years later, in an boggling 55-infinitesimal speech to his land on Monday February 21, Putin aired many of his grievances in a way he rarely had publicly earlier, every bit a prelude to state of war. In information technology, he said, "Ukraine is not a separate country," and that "Ukrainians and Russians were brethren, one and the same." Kyiv, in his view, had been ripped unceremoniously from Mother Russia when the Soviet Union dissolved. He then recounted the West'southward early on promise not to aggrandize NATO.

He recalled how coldly and so President Bill Clinton responded to his query, not long after he became President of Russia in 2000, about whether Moscow could ever be a fellow member of NATO. He recalled, bitterly, how he was bodacious that NATO's expansion eastward—to include countries that had been members of the Warsaw Pact, Moscow's former customer states—would "merely improve their relations with us, fifty-fifty create a belt of states friendly to Russia.

Everything," Putin said, "turned out exactly the contrary. They were just words."

FE Putin's Endgame 09 — Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to chair a Security Council meeting via a video link in Moscow on February 25, 2022. AlexeyNikolsky/AFP/Getty

How does Putin seek revenge for this betrayal? To the extent he tin, he wants to slice together a new Russian Empire. Not necessarily every province of the former Soviet Union, but those parts of the pre-Soviet empire, established past the Tsars, who were largely Russian speaking, orthodox Christian and who looked first to Kyiv, so subsequently to Moscow, every bit the political, cultural and spiritual eye of the world.

Putin is a nationalist first and foremost. Ukraine, plainly, is cardinal to this vision. But it as well includes the countries—former Soviet provinces—that are now effectively Russian client states (Belarus), besides as those Moscow wishes to control yet again: the Baltic states of Lithuania, Republic of estonia and Latvia (the latter iii are at present members of NATO, for whom the alliance is obligated to fight in the event ane of them is attacked.) Putin in his pre-invasion speech said it was "madness" that the Baltics were ever allowed to leave the USSR. He has demanded—preposterously—that the Alliance pull back to its 1997 stance, when there were just sixteen members, as opposed to 30 today.

Point, Counterpoint

It is for that reason that Biden is moving more NATO troops and materiel into the Baltics. On Feb 25, NATO Secretarial assistant Full general Jens Stoltenberg said the Alliance would for the first time dispatch troops from the Spearhead Unit of its and so-called Response Force—formed in 2014—to member states along the eastern front. NATO describes the Response Force every bit ''highly gear up and technologically avant-garde." It consists of forty,000 troops from a variety of NATO countries. Stoltenberg declined to say precisely how many troops would be deployed now.

More deployments are likely in the months ahead. President Biden vowed in no uncertain terms that an attack on a NATO member would trigger Article 5, the provision that maintains any armed attack against one state in the Alliance is considered an attack against all. If Putin moves on the Baltics, or on whatsoever NATO members that formerly were role of the Warsaw Pact—similar Poland and Romania, which border Ukraine, or Republic of bulgaria—then Moscow volition be at war with NATO.

With the invasion of Ukraine, analysts believe, Putin hoped to shake NATO. He wanted, says Douglas Wise, a former CIA officeholder and deputy managing director at the Defense Intelligence Agency, "to further separate our allies, and cement existing fissures and disunity inside [the Alliance] and the Eu. He also believes he can benefit by humiliating the Western leaders and institutions when they fail to develop credible and practical options to counter his assailment."

Whether Putin benefits at home for his audacious set on on Ukraine is not yet clear. (At that place were small-scale protests in major Russian cities in the immediate aftermath of the invasion.) But if creating more stress on NATO was one of his goals, that failed.

FE Putin's Endgame 05 — Ukrainians hold a protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine outside Downing Street, primal London. Stefan Rousseau/Getty

The Germans were widely viewed every bit the weakest link when information technology came to Russia, because of the two countries' significant merchandise ties. And at the outset of the crisis, that skepticism seemed justified. Early on, for case, Estonia wanted to send a batch of quondam howitizers in its possession to Kyiv. But NATO regulations say that any weaponry given or sold to a non-NATO member must be approved by the country of origin. In this case, that country did not exist: The howitzers had been in possession of the one-time East Germany. Upon unification, Federal republic of germany took command of them and ultimately passed them on to Republic of finland, who eventually gave them to Estonia. When Tallinn wanted to send them on to Ukraine, to practice its chip to help shore up Kyiv's defenses, Germany—astonishingly—declined to approve the transfer.

That was followed by Berlin's deep reluctance to stop the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline linking Frg and Russia, despite pressure to do so from its ain administrator to the U.S., Emily Haber. Following the refusal, Haber wrote a widely publicized cable to new Chancellor Olaf Scholz, maxim that the country was gaining a reputation every bit a bad marry.

To Putin, this must have indicated that his gas-politik was paying huge dividends. Merely it didn't terminal long. Scholz visited Washington in early on February and, in a post meeting printing conference with Biden, stood by meekly as the president asserted that Nord Stream 2 was dead if Moscow took military activity against Ukraine. On cue, hours after the invasion began final month, Frg halted certification of the $eleven billion project. Days later, Berlin announced it would ship anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, a stunning reversal of its long-held refusal to consign weapons to disharmonize zones.

Over the weekend, the E.U. and Washington went even further. They announced that several large Russian banks would be expelled from SWIFT, effectively kicking them out of the international financial organisation. The allies also sanctioned Russia's central bank. The intent: to make information technology difficult, if not impossible, for Russia to tap the $630 billion in difficult currency reserves it has accumulated. The potency of the motility was immediately apparent, equally the Russian ruble dropped sharply against the U.Due south. dollar, forcing Moscow to enhance interest rates from ix.5 percent to xx per centum to shore up its currency.

The evidence was clear: Far from deepening fissures within the alliance, Putin'due south Ukraine gambit has had the reverse consequence. One-time CIA Director and Army Full general David Petraeus, upon returning from the Munich Security Conference soon earlier the invasion, said he had never seen the Brotherhood so unified since the days when he served at NATO headquarters during the Cold State of war.

The evident unity among the members of what Biden accurately chosen the most powerful military alliance in history, has merely made the plight of Ukraine more than poignant. Every bit the invasion unfolded, a member of the Ukrainian parliament in Kyiv, Alexey Goncharenko, begged NATO to impose a no-fly zone, to allow his countrymen to accept a fairer fight on the basis. There was zero chance of that happening, because Kyiv wasn't in the lodge.

FE Putin's Endgame 10 — Ukrainians flock to the train station to exit capital Kyiv after Russian armed services intervention in the country in Kyiv, Ukraine on February 25, 2022. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency/Getty

Presently now, its desire to be part of the West will be moot, as Putin's Russia takes control—little more than 24 hours afterwards the invasion began, Russian forces were already entering the the upper-case letter and Kyiv was hit with Russian "prowl or ballistic missiles." Success is inevitable because Biden and the allies have made it clear that Moscow will non meet armed forces resistance from the W. Over and over Biden has told the American people the U.S. will not fight on the basis in Ukraine. He knows the public has no stomach for it.

If events play out equally military analysts now expect, the conflict volition end relatively quickly with a negotiated settlement that may cede some territory to Russia, the installation of a new Russia-friendly government in Kyiv and a partial withdrawal of troops that allows Putin to avoid the quagmire the West so badly wants him sucked into. In doing so, Putin will be able to merits that he dealt a devastating setback to NATO, the master goal of his aggression.

For Putin, the sack of Ukraine volition likely marker the endgame in his desire to restore the empire. If it doesn't, it will mean at some signal the world's ii largest nuclear powers will be in a shooting war, with all the risk that entails. With his words and more importantly his deportment, Biden is frantically signaling to Putin: this far, just no further. An anxious world hopes the Russian leader, satisfied with victory in Ukraine, will become the message.